As the Croatian labor market enters the post-tourism period, it is showing expected but also complex seasonal fluctuations, bringing a mixed picture for the end of October.

While the long-term trend of declining unemployment continues to be encouraging compared to last year's figures, seasonal increases in the autumn months clearly outline the return of a significant number of workers to the records of the Croatian Employment Service. This dynamic, where a year-on-year decline is recorded but a significant month-on-month jump is seen, requires a more detailed examination of the structure and causes of unemployment in the country.

According to official data from the Croatian Employment Service, also published by the portal index.hr, at the end of October this year a total of 77,825 unemployed persons were registered in the records. This represents an exceptionally positive shift compared to the same month last year, as 8,444 fewer persons were recorded, or a decline of an impressive 9.8 percent.

However, compared to the situation in September, the number of unemployed increased by 4.4 percent, meaning that in one month 3,266 new jobseekers joined the labor exchange, which is a common indicator of the end of the summer employment season.

Despite the inflow of new unemployed persons, the process of finding work did not stop, given that 14,806 persons left the CES records. Of that number, 8,643 found employment, with the vast majority, as much as 89.1 percent, achieving this through establishing a standard employment relationship, while the rest was realized through other business activities. The highest number of new workers was employed in the wholesale and retail trade sector, with a share of 15.4 percent, followed by manufacturing, with 15.2 percent, and education, where 14.1 percent of those employed from the Service's records found work.

In October, a total of 18,072 persons entered the unemployment records, which is only a slightly higher number compared to last October. The key piece of data explaining this seasonal increase is the fact that the largest share of the newly registered, 73.2 percent of them, came directly from employment, which clearly points to the end of temporary, seasonal contracts, especially in tourism. In addition to workers, persons who completed regular schooling also registered with the Service, accounting for 12.2 percent, as well as citizens who had previously been inactive, making up 14.6 percent of the newly registered.

Geographically speaking, the highest absolute number of registered unemployed is recorded in Split-Dalmatia County, with 15.4 percent of the total number, followed by Osijek-Baranja County, with 13.6 percent, and the City of Zagreb, with 12.9 percent, which are also the counties leading in the absolute number of persons employed from the records.

A significant aspect of the post-season period is also the increase in the number of recipients of unemployment benefits, which 20,449 persons received in October, as much as 20.1 percent more than last year, showing that a significant number of workers who lost their jobs are entitled to compensation. At the same time, employers' demand for workers through the Service decreased compared to the previous year, signaling a slight slowdown in labor market dynamics ahead of the winter months.