The beginning of 2026 brought not only new figures on price movements but also one of the most extensive changes in the way inflation is measured in Croatia and the European Union.

According to the first estimate by the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, the prices of goods and services for personal consumption in January 2026 rose by 3.4% compared with the same month last year, but behind that percentage lies a completely new methodology that will from now on more accurately reflect consumers' actual habits.

Services continue to lead price growth

Although the overall inflation rate has stabilized, a look at the structure of price increases reveals that pressure on household budgets is not easing evenly. Observed by the main components of the index, the strongest blow to citizens' living standards still comes from the services sector. The estimated annual growth rate for services stands at a high 7.2%, which significantly exceeds the other categories. Energy prices rose by 3.7%, while food, beverages, and tobacco recorded growth of 3.0%. Interestingly, industrial non-food products excluding energy remained almost unchanged, with growth of only 0.1%.

On a monthly basis, that is, compared with December 2025, prices were on average higher by 0.3%. Here too, services lead with monthly growth of 2.2% and energy with 1.8%, while industrial non-food products recorded a seasonal decline of 3.4%, probably driven by January sales.

Major methodological 'tidying up' of the basket

However, the main news is not only the level of inflation, but the way it has been calculated since this January. The Croatian Bureau of Statistics, aligning itself with European regulations, has begun applying the new European Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose, better known as ECOICOP version 2. Put simply, the statistical 'basket' of products and services that the bureau tracks in order to calculate inflation has been thoroughly reorganized and modernized to better match the reality of the 21st century. This new classification is identical to the 2018 United Nations standards and brings a more precise breakdown of goods and services.

The main goal of this change is to distinguish goods more clearly from services. For example, entirely new categories have been created for repair, installation, and rental services, which were previously often statistically 'absorbed' into the price of the products themselves. This provides a clearer picture of whether it is the product itself or the service related to it that is becoming more expensive.

Games of chance included in the inflation calculation for the first time

Perhaps the most interesting novelty for the general public is the inclusion of games of chance in the calculation of the consumer price index. Historically, the costs of lotteries, betting, and similar games were not part of inflation statistics due to inconsistencies in methodologies among European Union countries. However, the new regulation requires that from January 2026 this category must also be monitored. Games of chance are now classified within the recreation, sport, and culture section, more precisely as part of recreation services. This means that increases in the price of lottery tickets or betting stakes will now officially affect the inflation rate, thereby recognizing that this too is part of the consumer reality of many households.

Delivery and digital services in a new place

The reorganization has also affected everyday categories such as transport and communications. Until now, the delivery fee was often recorded as part of the price of the purchased goods, but under the new rules, the transport of goods is clearly separated and included in the Transport section. This is a logical step in the era of online commerce, where delivery costs are becoming an increasingly significant item.

The sector we knew as 'Communications' has undergone a significant redesign and a name change to "Information and communications". This change is not merely cosmetic, because the category now includes new types of information equipment and services and takes over some products that were previously classified under recreation and culture. In this way, statistics are trying to keep pace with rapid technological progress and the fact that smart devices today serve for work, communication, and entertainment.

Resetting the benchmark: 2025 as the new base year

In addition to the change in classification, statisticians have 'reset the scale' they use to measure price changes. A new reference period is being introduced, so the base year is shifting from 2015 to 2025. In practice, this means that all future price changes will be compared with the average from 2025, which is taken as index 100.

This kind of alignment is carried out every ten years across the entire European Union to ensure that the indices do not become outdated. It is important to note that this technical change will not erase history. The Croatian Bureau of Statistics will recalculate historical data series to the new base, ensuring that the data are comparable all the way back to the end of the 1990s, while the rates of change will remain the same to the second decimal place.

What comes next?

The final inflation data for January 2026, which will confirm the first estimate of 3.4%, will be published on 24 February 2026. At that time, detailed historical series according to the new methodology will also become available to the public. Although at first glance these may seem like dry statistical changes, they are crucial for the credibility of economic indicators. At a time when every decimal point of inflation affects pensions, wages, and interest rates, a more precise and modern tool for measuring price increases becomes a necessity, not just a bureaucratic formality. By including costs such as delivery and games of chance, official statistics have in fact taken a step closer to real life and the real wallet of Croatian citizens.