Almost nowhere else in the world, except in the Baltic states and war-affected Ukraine, is the population declining as quickly and dramatically as in the countries of Southeastern Europe, which represents an exceptionally serious challenge for the future of the entire region.

This demographic crisis is not merely a statistical figure, but a real threat to the survival and sustainability of societies, about which Deutsche Welle writes professor doctor Ulf Brunnbauer, historian and scientific director of the Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies in Regensburg.

Alarm bell and alarming forecasts

The season of publishing new census results regularly provokes sharp reactions and apocalyptic forecasts in media across the Balkans, and experts agree that the situation is indeed dramatic. 'This is an alarm bell,' Professor Brunnbauer explicitly emphasizes, given that the region is facing the rapid disappearance of human capital.

Regional media adopt an alarming tone, and the headlines paint a picture of general catastrophe. Thus, for example, it was recently written in Serbia that 'This year the fewest babies in Serbia's recent history!', stating that there are fewer and fewer newborns, while at the same time life expectancy is shortening. A similar situation exists in neighboring countries, so in Croatia there are warnings that 'All of Croatia will be on the backs of old people', while in Bulgaria there are fears that the crisis could grow into a real demographic catastrophe.

Statistical data confirm this discourse: since 1990, the population in the region has decreased from approximately sixty-two million to today's fifty-three million people. Bulgaria, for example, had almost nine million inhabitants at the end of communist rule, while today it has fewer than seven million. The main causes are twofold: a long-term negative natural increase and, even more importantly, strong emigration of young people.

Ineffective incentives and corruption

Political elites in the countries of Southeastern Europe recognize this problem as exceptionally serious, and some even call it a question of survival. Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković calls the demographic crisis a 'question of survival' for Croatia, which also led to the establishment of a special ministry for demography and immigration.

However, the main instrument with which governments try to respond to the crisis are financial incentives for having children, which are often accompanied by rhetoric portraying childbirth as a patriotic duty. Experience so far shows that such pronounced pronatalism, which was historically unsuccessful even in communist states half a century ago, has proved largely ineffective. Financial incentives, namely, cannot stop deep cultural changes nor remove the fundamental structural problems that drive young people to emigrate. Research clearly shows that, besides higher wages in the West, a decisive role in the decision to leave is played by widespread corruption, nepotism, and a general lack of prospects in one's own country.

Solutions: Changing attitudes and making use of domestic resources

Experiences from outside the region offer a concrete answer: while all countries of Southeastern Europe are expecting further decline, some European Union states, despite low birth rates, are projected to grow thanks to immigration. Still, in Southeastern Europe, judging by conducted surveys, broader social support for accepting immigration is lacking, especially when it comes to immigrants who look different from the domestic population.

But immigration is not the only solution, Professor Brunnbauer emphasizes. The countries of Southeastern Europe also have great untapped domestic labor potential due to low employment rates. Instead of focusing exclusively on financial rewards for having children, governments should concentrate on enabling citizens to live longer and healthier lives, so that people age longer and with better quality of life, and thus work longer as well. What is necessary, therefore, is a policy aimed at improving real living conditions, and not just empty rhetoric and clientelism, because without a change in attitude and concrete solutions, the vicious circle of fear and emigration will not be possible to break.