The latest data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics confirm the resilience of Croatian domestic demand at the very beginning of 2026.

According to official indicators, real retail trade turnover in January recorded year-on-year growth, continuing the positive streak that has now lasted for 34 consecutive months.

Although there was an expected slowdown on a monthly basis after the holiday-driven December, the overall picture of Croatian retail remains solid, providing optimistic signals for gross domestic product trends in the first quarter.

Year-on-year growth dynamics and sectoral differences

In January 2026, calendar-adjusted retail turnover increased in real terms by 3.0% compared with the same month of the previous year. This growth was primarily driven by strong demand for basic necessities. Retail trade turnover of food, beverages, and tobacco products recorded a significant jump of 6.1%. A similar trend was seen in the non-food products sector, excluding motor fuels, with a real increase of 5.4%.

On the other hand, the motor fuels sector recorded a negative result. Retail trade turnover of motor fuels and lubricants fell in real terms by 5.7% compared with January 2025, which moderated the overall retail growth index. Despite this decline, the overall data indicate that Croatian citizens are still spending actively, especially in the segments of fast-moving consumer goods and specialized products.

Monthly movements and January market cooling

When seasonally and calendar-adjusted data are observed in comparison with December 2025, January brings a real decline in total turnover of 1.2%. Such movements are not unusual at the beginning of the year, when consumer purchasing power is traditionally exhausted after intensive holiday shopping. The biggest impact on the monthly decline came from trade in motor fuels and lubricants, which plunged by 11.3%.

Interestingly, within that monthly decline, the food products segment still managed to achieve growth of 1.9% compared with December. At the same time, turnover of non-food products was slightly corrected downward by 0.5%. These data suggest that the structure of consumption in January shifted strongly toward essential groceries, while more luxurious goods and transport costs took a back seat.

Impact on the broader economic picture of Croatia

Continuous growth in retail turnover is a key pillar of the Croatian economy because personal consumption represents the largest component of gross domestic product. If we recall that in the fourth quarter of 2025 GDP grew in real terms by 3.6% compared with the year before, January’s retail data showing 3.0% growth suggest that the momentum of economic activity is continuing with similar intensity. Although annual growth is somewhat slower compared with December’s 4.8%, maintaining a growth rate above the threshold of three percentage points is considered a healthy indicator of economic stability.

The Croatian retail market has undergone a significant transformation in recent years. Higher employee incomes and a stable labor market are directly reflected on store shelves. Also noticeable is the growth trend in internet and mail-order trade, which recorded a real annual increase of 7.8% in January, indicating a change in the habits of Croatian consumers who are increasingly turning to digital sales channels.

January results from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics confirm that Croatia entered 2026 on the wings of stable domestic demand. Although inflationary pressures from previous periods have changed the assortment in shopping baskets, they have not stopped citizens’ willingness to spend. The decline in fuel sales can be attributed to seasonal factors or changes in energy prices, but as long as the food and non-food product segments continue to record solid growth, retail trade will remain the main generator of Croatian GDP growth.

In the months ahead, it will be crucial to monitor whether double-digit growth will continue in certain retail branches, such as textile and footwear sales or pharmaceutical products, which also showed high resilience in this reporting period.