LJUBLJANA – According to the latest projections of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), by 2029 Slovenia will – given the expected difference in economic growth rates – overtake Italy in GDP per capita by purchasing power and come significantly closer to the United Kingdom and France. By this indicator, it is already ahead of Greece, Portugal and Spain.

After this year's real GDP growth of two percent, the IMF forecasts a strengthening of economic activity in Slovenia of 2.5 percent in 2025, and then around 2.7 percent in the following years.

Such economic dynamics, although lower than in the years before the outbreak of the covid-19 pandemic and the recovery after the coronavirus in 2021, will, according to the fund's forecasts, significantly surpass those of EU members in western and southern Europe, thereby allowing Slovenia to gradually reduce its development gap with Europe's more developed countries.

While this year Slovenian GDP per capita, expressed in purchasing power standards or i.e. adjusted international dollars, has stopped at a value of 53,290, it should reach 66,680 in 2029, if the IMF's forecasts come true.

That would be more than the expected value of this indicator for Italy, for which an increase is expected from 56,910 purchasing power standards this year to 64,830 in 2029. It should also be noted that development differences within Italy are large and that its northern part is generally one of the more developed areas in Europe, while especially the south of the country remains in a state of poor development.

By 2029, Slovenia should come significantly closer to France and the United Kingdom in GDP per capita and purchasing power. In France, this indicator should increase from 60,340 i.e. international dollars this year to 70,150 in 2029. In the United Kingdom, however, it is expected to rise from 58,880 to 68,700 international dollars.

Some time ago, Slovenia overtook Greece, Portugal and Spain by that criterion, and that gap will remain or even increase slightly. However, Slovenia will still lag significantly behind Austria, Germany and most other EU members in northwestern and northern Europe, where the mentioned indicator is close to or above 80,000.

Poland is also rapidly reducing the development gap with some western and southern European EU members, where GDP per capita according to purchasing power standards is expected to rise from 49,060 in 2024 to 63,450 dollars by 2029. Strong growth should also be recorded by Lithuania, from 50,600 to 64,790, as well as the Czech Republic, from 50,470 to 62,600.

Despite growth, Hungary, Slovakia and, surprisingly, the Baltic tigers Latvia and Estonia are expected to retain lower indicator values. In Estonia, which is often cited as a model example of the development of former socialist countries, GDP per capita according to purchasing power standards is expected by 2029 compared to this year to be raised from 45,120 to 55,110.

However, Romania is quickly catching up with western countries, growing dynamically from a low starting point during the transition to capitalism in the years after joining the EU in 2007. By 2029, its GDP per capita in purchasing power standards should already reach 58,610. In neighboring Bulgaria, with similar starting points, it should amount to only 46,600 for comparison.

Meanwhile, in Slovenia's southern neighbor Croatia, which was the last to join the EU in 2013, GDP per capita by purchasing power is forecast by the IMF to reach 45,700 this year and 57,650 in 2029.

Source: seebiz.eu