Croatia has recorded an important statistical turnaround in recent years.

More people are moving into the country than leaving it, which is a significant change after a long period of negative migration trends. The source of the data is the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, according to whose data in 2025, 56,665 people moved to Croatia from abroad, while 37,485 people moved abroad.

This means that Croatia last year had a positive migration balance of 19,180 people. In other words, the difference between those who moved in and those who moved out was once again in the positive.

The turnaround began in 2022

From 2009 to 2021, Croatia continuously had a negative migration balance. More people were moving out of the country than moving into it, and this trend particularly marked the period after Croatia joined the European Union.

In 2021, the balance was still negative. That year, 35,912 people moved in from abroad, while 40,424 people moved abroad. On that basis, Croatia was in the red by 4,512 people.

The change occurred in 2022, when, after a long series of years, a positive migration balance of 11,685 people was recorded. The trend then continued and intensified. In 2023, the migration balance amounted to 30,178 people, and in 2024 it was 31,394 people.

A smaller surplus last year than in 2024, but the trend remains positive

Although Croatia remained in migration surplus in 2025, that surplus was smaller than the year before. In 2024, 70,391 people moved to Croatia, while 38,997 moved out. In 2025, the number of arrivals fell to 56,665, while the number of departures decreased to 37,485.

This means that the number of arrivals compared with 2024 decreased by 13,726 people, or by about 19.5%. At the same time, the number of departures decreased by 1,512 people, or by about 3.9%.

Despite this, Croatia had more arrivals than departures for the fourth year in a row. This is important because it shows that the country's migration picture has changed, although the figures alone do not allow the conclusion that this is only about the return of Croatian citizens.

Foreign workers changed the statistical picture

One of the important reasons for the turnaround is the change in the labor market and the strong growth in the arrival of foreign workers. In recent years, Croatia has increasingly relied on workers from third countries, especially in construction, tourism, hospitality, transport, industry, and service activities.

It is important to be precise here. The quota system for employing foreigners was not abolished at the beginning of 2020; rather, the new model entered into force on January 1, 2021. After that, the employment of foreign workers was no longer based on annual quotas, but on a new procedure for issuing residence and work permits.

This opened the way for faster growth in the number of workers from countries outside the European Union. In migration data, the effect of arrivals of people coming to Croatia for work is therefore increasingly visible, and not only because of classic family relocation or return from emigration.

Migration does not mean the same as overall demography

A positive migration balance does not automatically mean that Croatia's demographic picture is good. Migration is only one part of population trends. The other, very important part is natural change, that is, the difference between the number of births and deaths.

According to CBS data, in Croatia in 2025, 32,479 children were live-born, while 50,007 people died. Natural increase was negative and amounted to 17,528 people.

This means that Croatia lost 17,528 residents through natural change. The positive migration balance of 19,180 people compensated for that loss, but only slightly above the level of natural decline.

The calculation is clear: without immigration, the picture would be significantly worse

When migration and natural change are compared, it becomes clear how important immigration has become for Croatia's overall demographic picture. Last year, the migration surplus amounted to 19,180 people, while natural decline was 17,528 people.

According to this basic calculation, migration was enough to offset negative natural change. The difference between these two indicators amounts to a surplus of 1,652 people. Still, this should not be interpreted too broadly, because official estimates of the total population also include other statistical processing, methodological adjustments, and administrative sources.

What is clearly visible is that without immigration, Croatia still has a serious demographic problem. The number of deaths is still significantly higher than the number of births.

Slightly more births, fewer deaths, but the deficit remains large

Compared with 2024, natural change in 2025 was somewhat more favorable. The number of live births increased from 32,069 to 32,479, which is an increase of 410 children, or about 1.3%.

The number of deaths decreased from 51,080 to 50,007, which is 1,073 fewer deaths, or a decline of about 2.1%. As a result, natural decline also decreased from 19,011 people in 2024 to 17,528 people in 2025.

However, this is still a large negative natural change. Croatia still has significantly more deaths than births, so the demographic problem cannot be solved only by a better migration balance.

People are still leaving, but there are more arrivals

It is important to emphasize that a positive migration balance does not mean that emigration has stopped. In 2025, 37,485 people left Croatia. That is somewhat less than the year before, but it still shows that a significant number of people are moving abroad.

The difference is that in recent years the number of arrivals has been higher than the number of departures. In the earlier period, the problem was twofold. Croatia simultaneously had negative natural increase and a negative migration balance. Now the migration part of the statistics has turned around, but natural change remains deeply negative.

What has really changed?

Croatia has entered a new demographic phase. The country is no longer just a place from which the population emigrates, but is increasingly becoming a country people come to for work. This is most visible in the labor market, where foreign workers already play an important role in sectors that have for years faced a shortage of domestic labor.

But this turnaround should not be prettified. Migration improves the overall picture, but it does not solve the fundamental problem of low birth rates and population aging. Today, Croatia is statistically staying afloat primarily thanks to immigration, while natural change still shows how much the demographic base has weakened.

Therefore, the most accurate conclusion is that Croatia is no longer in the same migration deficit as it was about ten years ago, but the demographic challenge has not disappeared. Only its form has changed.