The global coffee market is going through a period of serious challenges that, according to all indicators, could significantly affect Croatian consumers as well.

The latest report by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reveals that global coffee prices are continuously rising under pressure from climate change and trade tensions. In September 2025, the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) reached 324.62 US cents per pound, representing an increase of 9.3 percent compared to August.

Climate change has already left a deep mark on production in countries key to the global coffee supply, such as Brazil and Vietnam, where droughts have significantly reduced arabica and robusta yields. At the same time, an additional blow came from US tariffs of 50 percent on Brazilian exports, which further fueled price growth along the entire supply chain.

According to data from Reuters, Brazilian exporters recorded a 46 percent drop in shipments to the US in August, and an additional 20 percent in September due to new trade barriers.

Such pressures are already being felt by roasters and distributors, who are facing rising raw material procurement costs. In Brazil, prices of roasted and ground coffee have already risen noticeably, and the local industry warns that such a trend could continue and accelerate.

For Croatian consumers, this means that the current price of coffee is probably not the peak, but only the beginning of a new wave of price increases.

Transport, tariff, and processing costs are already high, and any weaker production season can trigger a new jump in prices. In countries that depend on imports, such as Croatia, additional pressure is created by retailer margins, taxes, and logistics costs, which ultimately shape the final price for consumers.